jmmx

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239 Comments

    • Tue Nov 18th 11:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citi's CEO Confident That Job Cuts Will Redeem the Stock
      Citi deserves to just go under - they have the most terrible service imaginable.

      In 2006 I spent 8 months in Spain. I signed with Citi because they advertised a cheap transfer rate internationally. So I went to Sevilla (2 ours from where I was staying) to set up my account. Fine. Then tried to xfer online. The long and the short is that over the next several weeks I spent AT LEAST 40 HOURS trying to perform this xfer and never could get it done. Their phone help was pathetic. I had to deal with the Madrid office but Madrid could not see my acct cause it was in Sevilla branch. Finally - after hours and hours and hours on the phone (thank goodness for Skype) and traveling back and forth to Sevilla a few times, I just gave up. I never could get a transfer made. And in the end I discovered that they would have charged a percentage on top of the fee anyway.

      CITI SUCKS!!! IMHO
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 15th 10:00 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      LCA-Vision: Good Long-Term Investment
      good analysis

      thanks for the facts!
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Search Engine: Truth or Rumor?
      They could more easily buy Cuil.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 15:43 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Will Apple's Q1 2009 Revenue Estimates Be a Blowout?
      It should be noted that at some point the GAAP value will meet, or even exceed the non-GAAP value. This will occur when the number of iPhone (and ATV) units sold in the previous 24 months equals 8 times the number sold in the current quarter. As long as sales are accelerating, there will be a catchup game. Sooner or later, however, it will become very close. If sales ever level off, then it will equal it.

      As for sales numbers. - Andy, I think you cannot ignore the ponts mde by:
      On Nov 10 10:06 PM howmany wrote:

      > nice job...but where is the defense of those huge iPhone numbers.
      > Given the 2million channel fill last q, pent up demand due the emptying
      > of first gen iPhones from the channel, and the usual apple early
      > adopters, the terrible consumer environment, and the reduced rollout
      > to new countries, the fact that the new countries are smaller, leads
      > me to suggest a sequential drop to very moderate increase in iPhones
      > is in order. How do you justify your number overcoming these factors?

      You cannot ignore channel fill numbers. If they are really 2 M then this is significant.

      As to his other points - Surely pent up demand and early adapters helped last Q. On the other hand, this is the Xmas Q, the iPhone was not on sale the full Q last Q, and early adopters frequently influence others who then far outnumber the earlies. So we will have to see how all these complex factors play out for the iPhone.

      Another point - just because the bad economy has not caused an Apple slowdown so far, does not mean that this will continue. The economy most definitely is getting worse, unemployment numbers are going up. Sooner or later this will affect Apple's sales. (It probably has already, somewhat.) Since Apple is growing market share, then this may not lead to an actual decrease in sales, but it most likely will significantly dampen them.

      Time will tell.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 02:19 AM | Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      Analyzing Apple's iPod Business
      the iPod had two purposes.

      First - to generate revenue - increasing revenue with increasing sales.

      It has done that phenomenally. While it is true, as many have noted, that growth will continue overseas, it is also clear that the rate of sales growth will, of necessity, slow. Even as people buy more overseas, it is easier to double 600K than 6 M.

      But, as the article stated, this is less important, because iPod is becoming a smaller portion of total sales, and especially of total growth.

      Which brings me to the second purpose of the iPod: to attract people to the Mac OS platform. In this the iPod has succeeded way beyond expectations. So now the vanguard has completed its task. Investors need to change their perspective and see it in its new supportive role. The product line will continue to provide a significant revenue stream. More importantly, it will continue to be Apple's "ambassador" into its beautifully designed ecosystem of products.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 9th 21:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Jim Cramer Right? Is Apple Really a Market Barometer?
      It seems to me that there is a pretty good correlation between Apple's direction and the Dow/NASDQ. It frequently appears to move exaggeratedly with the index.

      Apple seems to be in this groove where it is at it's psychologically correct value, and is trading with the market. But it is really tautological to say that most stocks on any given day move in correlation with the index of the exchange where they are traded.

      I think Apple is in a bit of a schizophrenic state. People see it is doing great and want to get on - thinking it is undervalued. At the same time, people - both others and the some of the very same people - see that it could get clobbered by a deep recession. So - BARRING ANY PARTICULAR NEWS - it swings with the ups and downs of the market.

      IMHO
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 7th 15:46 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Apple vs. RIM: Study Shows iPhone More Reliable than Blackberry
      15,000 is an enormous sample size. Especially if you take into account that there is not very much to differentiate individual phones in the same class (i.e. one 3G iPhone is pretty much the same as the next). Since there are presumably many different RIMM models, it is expected that there may be significant differences in the performance of the various models. But overall the sample size is huge!


      On Nov 07 02:19 PM .crazylegs.. wrote:

      > 15,000 phones in the study? When apple and RIM are selling millions
      > per quarter. Can the results be considered at all accurate with
      > such a relatively small sample size?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 16:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Legal Music Downloads Catching Up to P2P
      Actually, the graphs have something interesting to say. The P2P site traffic is level, while the "sanctioned" sites are growing.

      A couple of hypotheses:
      1- P2P users are those who were using P2P before legal downloads (read: iTunes) began. Newer users entered the internet with the legal downloads option and so are not interested in the P2P - especially given the ease of use of the legal sites.

      2- P2P appeals to young people who have more time than money to spend, but as they grow older, they drift to the legal sites.

      My guess is that it is a combination of the two.

      One question remains: if the price point were to go up to $1.29 would people start to drift towards the P2Ps? What about $1.59? $1.99?
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 14:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Could Crush Competitors With a $99 iPhone
      One significant question here is the whole basis of the argument presented:

      Will substantially more people purchase iPhones if the price drops to $99?

      Obviously many will. That goes without saying. But will this be a truly significant number? I am not so sure. Remember, people are buying into a plan that will eventually cost them a minimum of $1500, and it is difficult to go out on a Saturday night and spend less than $50 (unless someone else is buying). So I do not think that many serious buyers are put off by the $199.

      IMHO
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 14:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reconstructing Apple Earnings, Including iPhone
      The voice of one crying in the wilderness!!

      As I am sure you are aware - there are many readers of the Apple financial blogs (my self included) who have also been trying to point this out for a long time.

      Thanks for the dedicated financial analysis.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 24th 14:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Initial Thoughts on Android and the G1 Smartphone

      Why would anyone buy a Google phone? Even if it is considered equivalent to iPhone (which one can argue it is not).
      1- Hate Apple - ok some people feel that way 5%
      2- Gotta have a keyboard - ok 20%
      3- Want to save $5 per month - ok 5%

      Apple now owns 50% (or more) of the smartphone market (they sold more units last quarter than did RIMM. Other than the reasons above, why would anyone want to buy a smartphone other than iPhone, which is much more elegant, and already has 5000 apps in a secure, easy to use environment that is integrated with its media browser/store?

      Basically, G1 will compete *for the most part* with RIMM. Just as in music players, there will be those who buy the iPhone, and those who buy other products. We have seen with the iPods, that Apple maintains a share (actually growing world wide) and new entries compete with the other players. So it will be with the iPhone, and they will be able to keep their price point.

      Yes, they will take some market share from Apple - but not that much.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 24th 02:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Forced Selling Continues - Cramer's Mad Money (10/23/08)
      Cramer: "He fears we may never see a bottom until the selling comes to an end."

      LIKe DUH!!!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 13:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Was the iPhone Deal Worth It for AT&T?
      Anyone who is fretting about this should not be investing in stocks, and certainly not in ATT.

      Like DUH - everyone knew that iPhone would cost up front. Everyone SHOULD have known that the idea is that it will pay off over time.

      So, you buy into iPhone for the long term. Everyone agrees that these are a moneymaker. Now you sell twice as many as you had planned. THIS IS GOOD NEWS! Really - I just do not understand how people can be so lame!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 11:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Rallies on Earnings, Analysts Mostly Upbeat
      Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan: Maintains Market Perform rating. “Growth is slowing at Apple, but the valuation is attractive on a longer term basis.”
      --

      Does he mean that we cannot expect another 500% growth in iPhones? I suppose not. lol
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 22nd 14:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why a Recession Might Be Great for Apple
      You do have a very good - and important - point here, but I still disagree.

      The BIG news is the non-GAAP financial results. What the financials really are, but get hidden by the need to spread iPhone revenue over 24 months.

      Total Revenue = $ 11.7 B
      Net Income = $ 2.4 B
      EPS = $2.69

      THIS is the REAL revenue and the real EPS.
      View article »
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