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F. J. Taylor
46 Comments
Cash Position Best for Apple Investor
Despite Apple's excellent products and position, this market is tanking big time - as I figured it had to some years since. The only things keeping it afloat were the housing bubble (which I also saw coming and sold up while the getting was good) and of course, Greenspan's "irrational exuberance." (Oh yeah - and the M-I complex's war profiteering outfits...)
The Street is rather like a bipolar case off their meds at the best of times, and in this situation and economy, more so.
However, as Baron Rothschild is said to have remarked; "Buy when the blood is running in the streets." (One hopes he was being metaphorical, and that it doesn't actually come to that...)
However, my bet long term remains on Apple. I sold off half my shares when they were high. As I had bought low, they paid for the lot, with a few bucks profit, so its "house money" now - and I plan to keep what I have, and when I think it has bottomed out, get more.
If you can't stand the heat, then by all means get out of the kitchen - all these amateurs and day-traders have helped create the havoc in the market (along with some corporate greed-heads at various levels and their political accomplices).
Like Zach, I don't anticipate any speedy recovery from this, so don't bet your bottom dollar on ANY stock - unless you can afford to lose it. Remember, the market is just like Vegas - a gamble - but if you have done your homework and due diligence, AND are lucky... you may come out on the other side (whenever and wherever it is) in one piece.
As to the notion that cash is somehow "safer" - don't forget what "cash" is - paper - with NOTHING behind it anymore. So as to gold and silver, own some (the real thing, not "shares"). Same goes with food - own some (real) food, not just shares. If the foreign investor trends continue, and any more oil producers yank the petrodollar, be aware that the BIG crash will come sooner rather than later, as all the US has left as a real ace in the hole is its military machine...
Meantime, good luck to all of you.
Crop of New Smartphones Will Compete With iPhone
First, as I have said many times on these threads: iPhone is NOT a "smartphone" - it is a MID (Mobile Internet Device) - and it is the best - and so far the ONLY - one out there that is a true MID.
Second, regular wireless phones, even "smartphones"... are passe for true mobile wireless internet device users, though there will doubtless always be a market, at least for the near to intermediate term. However, that market will never shop an iPhone or anything like it - because they can't afford it and generally aren't tech-savvy.
Third, my income is well below 100K, as is most of the people I personally know who already have or are planning on getting the iPhone. I don't know about you but I NEVER give my personal info to those wretches in marketing. If you do, you are just plain silly.
Fourth, Apple has the best OS and mobile OS available (OS X), and they interface beautifully - but will still work with those poor Windows users still mired in that drecky platform. As for the other abysmal "mobile platforms" being offered... the less said the better!
Fifth, I have used the touch screen. There are NO problems for the average user - even one with thick fingers who is a poor typist (like me). In fact, the intuitive nature of the app makes it even easier to type using this system - and there is nobody among the younger generation who feels the need for a physical keyboard, which just make the whole thing bigger and bulkier than it needs to be.
Sixth, I have spoken with AT&T sales personnel at our local store - which is in a small rural town in OR. They said the iPhone outsells all their other "smartphone" models by 25% - with the next closest model being their Blackberry. If that is indicative of actual sales nation-wide (which, judging by the fact that the iPhone is still flying out of stores everywhere, it is), I assume that means Main Street has already spoken.
As to the touted G1 - it is a clunky ugly duckling (though the Open Source model is one I support). However, like the Voyager and all the other "competitors"... whatever their good features, they all lack the main item - Apple OS as their platform. I will not settle for less.
9 Feature Comparisons: G1 vs. iPhone
If one wants the world's best GUI on a UNIX base, one runs OS X. Period.
Also, though you are perfectly correct in stating that Apple is a niche market, you forget (or are perhaps too young to know) that Apple was once the Big Dog on the block, with a dominant share of the market...
With its string of recent hits with iPod / iTunes and iPhone luring many former Windows customers away, I'd say there is a fair chance they may again become number one.
However, whatever Android does or becomes, it is a good idea - and will speed development in the field. It is not good for any system to have primacy, as we learned from MS's dominance of the field.
Three New Microsoft Commercials Making PCs Cool(er)
However, it is sad in a way, that the giant of the industry feels compelled to try to defend itself against a small, although spunky, challenger. It's as though Ali suddenly got the feeling that he needed to retaliate against some fly-weight.
No matter WHAT Windows does to tout their OS or dress it up, will always be what it always has been - a poor knock-off of the Mac OS. As we used to say when they first ripped off the concept; "Windows 95 = Mac '89" Has anyone noticed that Mr. Ballmer is desperately trying to become Apple? Not only by the commercials, but he is even sending out memos to the staff saying that they have to "do it like Apple."
Microsoft has done some things well in the past. Word (which was originally written for Mac) was a good WP before they crammed it with useless add-ons and bloated it beyond belief.
Same with Works - formerly one of the better office suites out there. (Most people don't need Office, unless they are in (Big) business.)
My advice to Microsoft is get back out of the OS business (which has always been mediocre) and on to doing what they used to do well - developing useful software.
I was primarily a Microsoft user (DOS 3.x through Windows NT) for over a decade, though I also used Apple, as well as Unix, Linux, and other platforms.
I have run LANs (both Windows and Mac) as a sys admin, and used and taught all major applications for both.
Though I had my Windows systems as well-tuned and maintained as possible, they still required infinitely more work to keep running than the Macs. I also noticed the differences in ease of use for the end user, and how everything just WORKED together.
It was that exposure to Mac that made me a convert, and I made the switch just before OS X. Though one of the last iterations of OS 9 was a bit rocky, I have still never regretted it, and only wish I'd done it years before. I have been running only Apple for over a decade now, and am still LOVING it!!!
DOS or Windows was NEVER as smooth, easy, and fun as the Mac, and is incapable of being by its nature and design. I will NEVER return to Windows (I'd sooner stick pencils in my eyes!), and loathe even helping friends who are still mired in the MS nightmare. My sincere advice is get a Mac and join the growing legions who are actually using their computers for fun and as a useful mind-tool (what I originally wanted a computer for) instead of nursing a finicky, slow, annoying, buggy, pain in the posterior!
However, Macs now run Windows too - if you really need to - and they run them smoother, better, faster, and more stably (at least through XP). I have installed it on several computers whose users needed the Windows for work - and it works better than on comparable PC-designed boxes. (I can't explain this, because the parts are all obtained from the same manufacturers these days!)
BTW, I notice how some people in these columns attack Mac users and use demeaning descriptors for them. (And I will admit some of the Mac fans can be annoying at times.) However, did it ever occur to any of these people to wonder just WHY the Mac users are so strongly loyal and enthusiastic about their product? Could it just be because it actually IS a pleasure to use?
(Disclosure: I hold shares in Apple and remain long despite the turbulence of the present market. However, I was as big an Apple enthusiast even when I didn't have a dime of stock!)
Could the Unthinkable Happen in Today's Markets?
First, the government shouldn't be bailing out these institutions (with borrowed fiat money that will fall on the taxpayers for generations to repay, let me remind you), thus rewarding them for greed, short-sightedness, stupidity, and in some cases doubtless malfeasance.
Second, the SS fund SHOULD be in a locker-box for the future. If it were so, and remained so, they would have never had a potential short-fall issue. However, they have been raiding it for years for other pet pork projects, and that should be a criminal act.
Now you propose that the Feds use OUR SS funding to bail out said corporate greed-heads, suggesting that it will be repaid handsomely at some unspecified later date by the same stupid and clueless people who created this fiasco?
If you, I, or anyone else wishes to gamble their money on the Street (and gambling is what it is)
I want to do so with money I have at my discretion and command, and at my direction. I DEFINITELY don't want a combination of greedy fools and legislators (which are basically the same thing) tossing the dice for it.
Let me inform you that I have absolutely minus zero intention of letting our gormless legislators give Wall Street the Social Security money they have been salivating over for so long. In fact, I will be starting a campaign against just such a contingency right now.
Thanks for the idea.
Microsoft: Still Master of the Operating System Domain
All the above comments about Vista being an even worse piece of dreck than Windows historically has been are quite correct, and I am seeing MANY defections - including former die-hard Windows / DOS users and even IT professionals (such as I once was).
As one engineer friend remarked to me; "I waited six years fro THIS???" (He then promptly went out and bought a Mac.)
It has nothing to do with the cute ads - it has everything to do with the cruddy Windows OS and products - speaking of which, the iPod and iTunes have been responsible for bringing in thousands of former Windows users, and I see iPhone and iPod Touch are already doing the same. (How many iPods do you see out there? Now, how many Zunes? I rest my case.)
The chap from Finland is correct as to Apple being a growth market (percentage-wise), as is the gentleman who mentioned that Windows is forcing Vista down consumers' collective throats by dumping XP - this is not "growth" or a viable commercial success strategy - it is the act of a desperate megalomaniac, and will drive even more disgruntled users from it - especially now that Mac runs Windows better than Windows-specific boxes. All you need is your old copy of XP and Boot Camp (free from Apple). Also, Apple has long run Office and most other Windows business apps. So explain to me why we need Windows OS, and why you think it is going to retain market share, no matter how many (not-so-)funny men they hire?
Replacing P/E in Valuing Apple Stock
Replacing P/E in Valuing Apple Stock
Apple Is Worth More than Steve Jobs
Apple Is Worth More than Steve Jobs
Channel Checks Show Blackberry Sales Not Pressured by iPhone
Our nearest AT&T dealer (in a small town in Oregon) has been out since mid-day Saturday, and is now only taking special orders, as they don't expect regular stocking for 4 - 6 weeks.
I heard the same story all over the US. Neither RIMM nor any other device I know of has ever come close to a million sales in two days...
I like Blackberry - but I love iPhone. BTW, I have been with Verizon since they were Airtouch, have a family plan with four lines, and love their service - but I am going to have to switch to AT&T - because Verizon made the unbelievably stupid move of refusing Apple when they offered them the iPhone first...
As to RIMM - this article is more whistling in the dark past the graveyard at midnight. The hard-core crackberries will never give them up - but then, there is still an "Apple II Forever" programming cult - and one for Newton...
The questions raised above by posters are all good ones - and I think we shall see the results shortly.
Which is a Bigger Story: iPhone 3G or Tanking Banks?
Now as it happens, though a big Apple fan myself and a shareholder, and thus happy to see all the buzz, I am also strongly opposed to the regime's war of choice (especially in Iraq) which is exacerbating the present problems, as well as breaking our military, whatever moral standing we had left with the world at large (little enough, I fear), and will inevitably break our bank - which, as he points out, is largely smoke and mirrors anyway.
(BTW, full disclosure here: I am a retired Marine, and a veteran of close personal ground combat.)
While I am not a big fan of Friedman's, this bit is bang on. (Though the points about gold and fiat currency, which agree with, seems more like von Mises' theories than Friedman's work...)
In any case, I fear we have just scratched the surface of the "fear factor" - and that if we do not rapidly mend our collective ways as a nation and as individuals, we are facing a disaster of great magnitude.
I am not at all certain that we will survive it as a nation, or at least in the form we are accustomed to in the US...
BTW, Blad_Rnr - even those who support this war (for whatever to me unfathomable reasons of their own) are not, for the most part, sacrificing anything - because they have no personal or abiding interest in it. Only a relatively small number of people are involved or even have a family member involved, and there is no draft (unless you count the economic "back-door draft" nature of our present volunteer armed forces).
Only a few of the wealthy (or politicians) have anyone serving in the armed forces, let alone combat.
I might add that there is no "war economy" other than operations like Halliburton) because we simply don't have much industry left here. Many parts or even entire systems are made, or assembled or acquired from off-shore sources. (The Marines are even getting their bayonets from Germany!)
Pity more people haven't grasped these and other critical facts. As the title of the article asks, which IS the bigger story...? Americans don't really seem to care as long as they have their MTV, American Idol, McMansions, Hummers, etc.
UBS Analyst: Survey Shows 3G iPhone Poses Little Threat to BlackBerry
As for the "survey" - I personally KNOW more people who are going iPhone from Blackberry, or just not buying it because of iPhone (In fact, I am one of the latter) than they even surveyed. So much for that fatally flawed survey...
A few people here made some points that would be valid in other contexts, but which seemingly don't apply to Apple - they appear to be more "Teflon" than Reagan, and as one poster pointed out, even the flaws in iPhone appear to be ignored by its large and growing fan base.
(I consider them fairly minor, but then, I am one of those guys who can change the batteries not only in their computers, but in their watches -
and I am not even the best techie in my crowd...)
As to usage of Mac vs. Windows - User 226830 - wake up and smell the coffee, man. I am a recovering DOS and Windows user, and I cans see Windows is hemorrhaging customer base at a large rate - mainly due to their self-inflicted wound of Vista, which is the best thing they ever put out - from a Mac POV, because it is driving people our way like crazy! I had an engineer buddy, an old-time bread-board days guy (even older than me!) and he told me he was switching the other day. As he said; "I waited six years for THIS????!!!!") Aren't you reading the stories from around the country and around the world about people, governments, and businesses switching from Windows to Mac or Linux? Some entire COUNTRIES in Europe are switching! A major German publisher just gave Mac an order for 12,000 computers - it is scrapping its Windows systems.
Just as iPod and iTunes took over the digital download market, and also led people to Apple and Mac, iPhone is doing the same and bound to do more. I can easily visualize a time when Apple
regains its old place - as big dog in the field. It once held 55% or more of the market.
Windows day is over, as is RIMM's. (At least RIMM produced a quality product, which is more than DOS or Windows ever was...) MS better go back to creating decent software, and forget the OS field - it is DONE!
As to Toni - you seem to be twitting some people here with your odd posts. (?) While Apple's figures are indeed not what they SHOULD be, this is due to several factors external to their worth, including the fact that some investors don't know their arse from left field about electronics, programming, etc.
There is also the fact that as you may have noticed, there has been extreme volatility in the market of late (as well there should be!), and that included tech - even profitable, well-run, and well-capitalized firms such as Apple are getting hammered along with those who deserve it. (I also think there are some people and / or groups out there who are deliberately striving to drive the price down for their own agendas...)
However, you will notice that they were above 202 not so long ago. Unless this present economic situation descends into the maelstrom (all too likely!), Apple should rise again. Of course, if things get so bad they don't - we are all in deep kimchi... except for those of us smart enough to cover our tushes with a gold disaster fund...
For those smart and lucky enough to get in at 76 as I did, and who sold part of their holdings when they were way up there (ditto) - well I made enough to more than cover my original investment, and a modest profit. I am now playing with "house money" - something I advise everyone who is investing (or gambling - same-same) to do. But I am betting that short or long term, Apple will survive and thrive. If they don't - well, I imagine some of you have seen Soylent Green - coming to a neighborhood near you soon...
And BTW, Hammertime - I understand and deeply sympathize with your position re: AT&T - thank Verizon for thumbing their nose at it - they were offered first go. I have been holding out, but am now going to hold my nose instead. (BTW, in preliminary soundings I made recently, AT&T has gotten WAY better at customer service, and extended their holdings and area coverage extensively.)
Apple Ups The Ante With 3G iPhone - But RIM's Almost Ready to Counter
But most of the people who write these things don't seem to get that - which is why Apple always leaves them (like the "competition"... in the dust.
mollytjm, PK D'Cville, and some of the rest are quite right on all counts. Apple is and always has been an innovator of the best products and OS - and now the rest of the world is catching on.
The Screws Tighten on Apple Investors
www.appleinsider.com
'Huge demand' forces O2 to pull plug on iPhone 3G pre-orders
O2 began taking pre-orders for Apple's new iPhone 3G through its website early Monday but was forced halt the service just hours later as UK consumers flooded the carrier's servers and quickly consumed initial supplies.
German publisher drops 12,000 PCs for Mac
One of Germany's largest newspaper publishers will become one of Apple's largest-ever customers when it converts all of its 12,000 computers from Windows systems to Macs. Also, the latest beta of Flash Player 10 promises to boost sluggish performance with Apple computers.
Multiply this trend world-wide, and factor in Asia (as FreeRange mentions above), Apple's huge bankroll (18 billion and rising), excellent products and strong following, and you see a world growth that will off-set the market declines that are almost inevitable.
Will a market crash occur? IMO, indubitably. The economy is in deep kimchi at this point, due to a number of factors. Will it be world-wide? Almost certainly, as we are all bound together now, like it or not. Will it be long, deep, and painful? Again, almost inevitably.
As to stocks in general - my advice would be to stay out of most - but as with all declines and even crashes, good, solid, stocks with good potential are the ones to be in. You pick the one with the most potential and best fundamentals, and buy when it is low. Aside from the "basics of life" stocks (food, water, etc.), there are few I would recommend - Apple is one of them.
As to Mr. jesselivermo's comment - I hardly think Apple is "over-hyped" - his comment smacks of a disgruntled PC fan, though it is true that nothing is immune from the coming storm.
I have Apple, which has more than doubled since I bought it and plan to hold it. (Note: I did sell enough to cover my investment when it was higher, so I am now playing with "house money" - something I always advise when investing or gambling - both of which share similarities.)