KenC

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134 Comments

    • Fri Nov 21st 13:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is iPhone Leading the Way in Smartphone Evolution?
      How is it possible that 7% of iPhone owners haven't installed an app? Are those still in boxes waiting to be given as gifts? Are those in inventory sitting on store shelves? Inquiring minds want to know! I have over 90 apps downloaded for my iPhone.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 19th 13:36 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Greatest Idea Yet
      When the iPod succeeded, I never thought Apple would have another hit as big as that. Honestly, how many gamechanging devices can any one company create in a short period of time?

      With the iPhone, I think they are going to exceed what they accomplished with the iPod. No, not 70% marketshare. Just look at Jason's article, he's effusing like a little boy. It's just like the movie, Field of Dreams, when the brother-in-law looks up and asks "when did they get here?" referring to the ballplayers. All of a sudden, they are the biggest cheerleaders around, as if they discovered gold.

      Look at the iPhone, it already generates more in non-GAAP revenues than the iPod, ever did. The iPod had iTunes to drive follow-up sales. You loved your iPod when it shuffled to a song you hadn't heard since highschool. The iPhone is better. It has Apps to drive follow-up sales. Anytime you want to fall in love with your iPhone, just download a new App, a free one or a 99 cent one like Ocarina. Pure joy, that's what it is.

      And, what's great, is it builds on top of the existing iPod ecosystem. The 3rd-party mfrs are already making iPod cases and speakers have very little retooling to make iPhone and Touch cases and speakers. How many iconic devices have a Billion-dollar ecosystem, a virtuous cycle?


      @Dividends, margins are not declining. The more iPhone revenue that hits the bottom line lifts gross margins, as the GM on the iPhone is 47.8%, far above Apple's normal GM of between 30 and 33%. Now, GMs have been guided lower, as the cost of mfring the unibody Macs is expensive, but Apple CHOSE to spend more on mfring. That's a key difference.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 20:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Who Will Take GM's Place in the Dow?
      As much as I'd like to see Apple in the Dow, it's going to be Cisco.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 10th 12:06 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Buy, Sell or Hold: Apple's Cohesive Strategy to Survive and Thrive
      Wow, that was long!

      Question, your Chart 1, is that the installed base market share figure or is it the one year sales figures? Cause you state that Apple sold more than Rimm, and yet, Rimm is at 12% and Apple at 7%. A little disconnect between the chart and what you are talking about.

      Data security - unless Apple is doing something different than what they announced in March at their press conference, I'm quite sure there is a "remote wipe" feature for IT departments. And, Apple announced a special program for corporations to allow custom app solutions. How is the cost, "lower"? You don't say. Is it because Apple's email server is more expensive than Blackberries? Oops, Apple doesn't sell a email server.

      WalMart? You do know that WalMart has tried to sell music before, at 88 cents, and failed. What makes you think they'll succeed now?

      Nokia's Ovi? It only comes on a couple of their handsets.

      Google's G1 comes thru T-Mobile. They are #4 in a 3 carrier market. They have 3G service in how many cities? 20? AT&T has 3G in something like 280 cities. No matter how good the G1 is, the sellable market is virtually nil. How is the G1, "revolutionary&qu... Because it mimics the iPhone? You do realize that Android is built around a browser that uses WebKit. Who developed WebKit? Apple. As for "location services", you do realize that the iPhone has it, and many more apps that use it.

      Open source means nothing to the consumer. If it did, Linux would sell better. It is just as easy for anyone to develop for the iPhone and the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The iPhone has over 5500 apps already. The G1? 50? More?

      You mention the Tube, Bold and Instinct. The Tube is a joke, it doesn't use a capacitance touchscreen. The Bold's screen is too small. Did you see Sprint's latest numbers? I don't think people are buying the Instinct.

      The Nuvifone was "launched" where? In a vacuum? I love Garmin, but the last I heard the Nuvifone was delayed until next year. And, turn-by-turn directions, apparently, TomTom and Garmin have developed apps for the iPhone, but are waiting for Apple to lift their restrictions on it.

      In other words, you don't really know your products very well, otherwise, you wouldn't have cited a whole slew of criticisms that just don't hold very much water.

      For an analysis that recommends buying, your conclusion is rather negative. Read some of Andy Zaky's analysis on SA for comparison. Also, read Roughlydrafted.com for some insight into the actual product side.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Future in the Mobile Phone Market
      47.8% gross margins on the iPhone, that's all you need to know.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Rumors: Mac Upgrades and iPhone Production Drop
      Apple doesn't ramp up inventory, it would show up in its financials. The FBR analyst is a semiconductor analyst, and has a poor track record of making these calls. Read the Fortune Mag blog of Elmer-Dewitt, or Andy Zaky's report, here on SA.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      An Alternative Perspective on Apple's iPod Growth
      @Murphy, here's a link to a site that you might enjoy:

      www.deepcapture.com/ji.../
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 10:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      An Alternative Perspective on Apple's iPod Growth
      @Murphy, here's a link to a site that you might enjoy:

      www.deepcapture.com/ji.../
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 20:41 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's FY09 Gross Margin Expectations Are Too Low
      In fact, if you think of the non-GAAP numbers, since only 2.4M of the 6.9M iPhones were sold in the US, then international sale were an even higher percentage of total sales.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 29th 20:40 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's FY09 Gross Margin Expectations Are Too Low
      I concur with Turley about foreign exchange hedges. Companies with large foreign exchange earnings, routinely hedge their expected revenues. You shouldn't expect any significant surprises.

      However, the canadian dollar has weakened against the USD. I plan on going to Quebec for Xmas!

      And, Apple's international revs are a good fraction of Apple's total earnings:

      Of the $7.9B of GAAP revs reported last quarter, here's a breakdown:
      US = $3.6B
      Europe = $1.7B
      Japan = $320M
      Retail Stores all over = $1.7B
      Other = Mostly Asia, not including Japan = $562M

      So, if you could break out Retail Store earnings by country, you'd pretty much know Apple's international sales, but even without that, you can see they equal about $2.6B compared to US sales of $3.6B.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 20:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Share of Online Searches by Engine, Sept. 2008
      A natural monopoly is not illegal. No DOJ investigation, no matter what administration.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 15:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reconstructing Apple Earnings, Including iPhone
      Again, good stuff, Andy.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 27th 21:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPod Sales Only 14.2% of Apple's Q4 Total Revenue
      Good stuff, Andy!

      It's good to see that your numbers on Apple's non-GAAP revs are within $0.1B of my own, that I calculated on the back of an envelope back in April. I posted over at MDN's Opinion page that Xmas quarter last year the sales were really $10.5B, not the reported GAAP $9.6B; and that the quarter afterward was $8.0B not the reported GAAP $7.5B.

      I got no traction back then, but you seem to have gotten the ear of Elmer-Dewit and others. Keep going, we're all behind you.
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 25th 01:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Initial Thoughts on Android and the G1 Smartphone
      It must be the Sidekick experience that you have, because I found having to slide open the keyboard every time I wanted it to go landscape to be annoying. Didn't you find that annoying? And, the inconsistency in the UI from app to app was strange. That bothered me too. Then again, I only played with it for 5 mins.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 23rd 15:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Revisiting the iPhone’s Browsing Market Share (Part II)
      Dude, the reason why people ragged on you is because, EVERYONE KNEW that Admob only counts "mobile web" numbers. You seemed to be the only person who did not realize that.
      View article »
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